Crisis Monitor
A composite of the latest macro and market signals, grouped into two bands — structural Vulnerability and acute Stress. It measures how fragile the market is, not when it will fall.
Market stress indicators: how the Crisis Risk Index is built
The Crisis Risk Index (CRI) combines twelve market stress indicators into one reading from 0 to 100. It describes how fragile the market looks and how much acute stress it shows now. It measures conditions; it does not predict a fall.
Which signals it combines
Twelve signals form two groups. Each has a score from 0 to 100, a data source and a data date, shown with current values in this page's live breakdown.
Vulnerability: slow-building fragility
| Signal | What it reads |
|---|---|
| Valuation V1 | Prices against ten years of average earnings (Shiller CAPE), from a quarterly snapshot. |
| Stock-market leverage V2 | Money borrowed against stocks (FINRA margin debt), year over year, published monthly. |
| Complacency V3 | How low the VIX is: a very calm market can precede stress. |
| Breadth V4 | Share of large US stocks above their 200-day average; narrow leadership is fragile. Concentration is not part of this public index. |
| Yield curve V5 | Gap between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields; inversion has preceded past recessions. |
| Crypto leverage V6 | Annualised funding rates on perpetual futures of the two largest crypto assets. |
Stress: acute pressure now
| Signal | What it reads |
|---|---|
| VIX stress S1 | The VIX (CBOE, via FRED): expected market volatility, often called its fear gauge. |
| Credit spreads S2 | The extra yield lenders demand on US high-yield bonds (ICE BofA, via FRED). |
| Drawdown velocity S3 | How far US stocks sit below their 60-day high, and the move over five days (EODHD). |
| Crypto liquidations S4 | Forced liquidations on crypto perpetual futures over 24 hours. |
| Stablecoin depeg S5 | How far the two largest stablecoins stray from one dollar (CoinGecko). |
| Liquidity / conditions S6 | Financial conditions (NFCI, Chicago Fed) and money-market strain (SOFR minus IORB, FRED); the worse of the two counts. |
How the number is built
Inputs
The index brings together signals of market sentiment, credit conditions and the stock market itself.Two readings
It reads two things side by side: how vulnerable markets look, and how much stress they show right now. Each signal is shown with its own reading and date.One number
The two readings are shown separately and together in one number from 0 to 100, so you can see which one is driving it.Gaps in the data
A signal without data is left out, never counted as zero, and confidence is shown lower. When too few signals are current, the index is not published, and a reading that could not be fetched is replaced by the last known one only while it is still fresh.
How to read the levels
Five levels are named by the rounded index. Each describes current conditions, not what comes next.
| Level | Range | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | 0–29 | Conditions are calm: fragility and stress signals are low. This describes the current level of stress, not where the market will turn. |
| Normal | 30–44 | Conditions are broadly normal. Overall fragility and stress readings are moderate. |
| Watch | 45–59 | The market is worth watching. Some fragility is building, but there is no acute stress event yet. |
| High | 60–74 | Risk is elevated. Fragility and acute pressure are both meaningful. |
| Crisis | 75–100 | Signals point to acute market stress — the index is in its highest band. |
Read a level with its date, the vulnerability and stress split and the dominant driver.
What it does not do
- It does not forecast a fall or say when one will come; a high reading can last long without a crash.
- It is not the probability of a crash.
- It is not a trading signal and tells no one what to do with a portfolio.
- Signals can lag or be wrong, so each shows its source and date.
Data sources and update frequency
The server recalculates the index every hour.
| Source | Supplies | Updates |
|---|---|---|
| FRED (St. Louis Fed) | The VIX (from CBOE), Treasury yields, the high-yield spread, the Chicago Fed's NFCI, the SOFR and IORB rates | Most each business day; the NFCI weekly |
| EODHD | Stock prices | Read at each hourly recalculation |
| FINRA | Margin debt | Monthly, published weeks late |
| Shiller | The CAPE valuation measure | A quarterly snapshot |
| Binance, CoinGecko | Public crypto data | Read at each hourly recalculation |
Common questions
Measurable signals of how fragile or strained markets are, such as the VIX, credit spreads, the yield curve or funding conditions. The CRI combines twelve of them.
No. It describes conditions as measured and is neither a forecast nor a probability; a high reading can persist without a fall.
Every hour; the underlying series move from daily to quarterly, so each signal shows its own date.
A signal is left out when its source is unavailable or too old; the index then shows lower confidence instead of a made-up value.
As one input to limit drawdowns: while the reading is low the split is unchanged; when it is high, part of the stocks (and crypto, if any) moves gradually into short-term government bonds and gold. It is a calculation, not an order.
Only in part. The index was looked at after the fact on past market stress, and several signals lack enough history, such as the crypto signals. That is not evidence that the index would have warned in time.